Spanish Olive Oil Market Before the 2026/27 Harvest: Prices, Stocks and What Buyers Should Watch

POOLred data reported by ASAJA Jaén for 15–21 September put Spanish origin prices at approximately €3.41/kg for extra virgin olive oil, €3.24/kg for virgin and €3.14/kg for lampante. The same weekly report recorded 73 transactions representing about 4,896 tonnes.

These are origin-market references, not delivered export quotations. Freight, packaging, certification, financing, loading arrangements and Incoterms can materially change the final price paid by an international buyer.

Spain produced approximately 1.30 million tonnes during the 2025/26 campaign. AICA-derived figures published by Cooperativas Agro-alimentarias put total Spanish olive-oil stocks at approximately 475,434 tonnes on 31 August: about 264,799 tonnes at mills, 206,615 tonnes with packers and 4,020 tonnes at the Patrimonio Comunal Olivarero.

Stocks fell by almost 94,000 tonnes during August. The market is therefore entering the new campaign with oil available, but with old-crop inventories being progressively reduced.

The central question is now how much oil Spain will produce next. Flowering and fruit load are only part of the picture: summer heat, water availability, fruit development and final oil yield can materially change the volume ultimately produced.

The Junta de Andalucía has scheduled presentation of its 2026/27 olive crop forecast in Jaén for 29 September. Because Andalusia dominates Spanish olive-oil production, that forecast will provide an important early official reference point. It remains a forecast: harvesting conditions and milling yields will determine actual physical availability.

Four factors matter most as the market moves into the new harvest: the Andalusian crop forecast, realised oil yield, the pace of old-crop stock drawdown and the relationship between remaining old-crop offers and new-crop pricing.

Buyers should compare quotations against the same grade, specification, quantity, bulk format, loading or delivery point and Incoterm. EXW, FCA, FOB, CIF and DAP prices are not directly comparable without accounting for the services and transport included.

Current conditions give buyers more flexibility than during the recent shortage cycle, but the final size and oil yield of the 2026/27 crop are not yet known. Procurement decisions should therefore be based on current physical availability and comparable supplier quotations rather than production expectations alone.

For a workable bulk request, specify the oil category and specification, quantity, tanker/flexitank/IBC/drum format, conventional or organic requirement, destination, Incoterm, laboratory and documentation requirements, and purchasing timetable.