Spain Olive Oil Harvest 2026/27: Official 1.60 Million-Tonne Forecast and What It Means for Bulk Buyers

On 1 October 2026, Spain's Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food published its first national estimate for the new campaign: 1,602,596 tonnes of olive oil. That is 23% above 2025/26 and is described by the Ministry as a medium-high crop.

The headline is important for international buyers, but it remains a forecast rather than oil already produced and available at a fixed price. The Ministry explicitly says the estimate is preliminary and may be adjusted as weather, fruit development and oil yields become clearer.

Andalucía is forecast at 1,261,200 tonnes, 29% above the previous campaign and 78.7% of Spain's total. Jaén alone could reach 575,000 tonnes, around 36% of national production.

Castilla-La Mancha, Spain's second-largest producing region and an important sourcing area for Navarra Exports, is forecast at 152,555 tonnes, up 10% and equal to 9.5% of the national estimate. Extremadura is forecast at 97,300 tonnes, up 24%.

A strong national total masks regional differences. The official forecast shows Cataluña at 30,344 tonnes (-22%), Aragón at 12,490 tonnes (-27%), Murcia at 10,318 tonnes (-28%) and Navarra at 5,200 tonnes (-10%).

For procurement teams, national production should therefore not be treated as a substitute for supplier-level availability, specification, location and loading capacity.

The Ministry says mild temperatures and abundant spring rainfall supported flowering and fruit set, while high summer temperatures affected rain-fed groves. Weather in the coming weeks and the evolution of the fruit will influence extraction yields and final production.

This is why the 1.603-million-tonne figure should be used as a supply signal, not a guaranteed final crop.

A 23% increase in forecast production materially improves Spain's supply outlook, but it does not support a claim that prices will fall by a specific amount. Opening stocks, consumption, exports, competing Mediterranean production, actual extraction yields, quality distribution and buyer demand all matter.

The defensible conclusion is narrower: Spain enters 2026/27 with a significantly stronger production outlook than the previous campaign. The effect on Extra Virgin, Virgin, Refined and Olive-Pomace pricing will become clearer as physical production and market balances develop.

The national estimate covers olive-oil production as a whole. It does not tell a buyer how much oil will meet a particular EVOO specification, organic requirement, cultivar profile or private-label programme.

Bulk buyers should continue to ask suppliers for the exact grade, batch specification, available volume, loading window, Certificate of Analysis and commercial basis before comparing offers.

For comparable RFQs, define the grade, analytical and sensory specification, volume, bulk or packaged format, current-stock versus new-crop requirement, loading or delivery window, documentation and Incoterm.

EXW, FCA, FOB, CIF and DAP quotations are not directly comparable without accounting for the services, freight and risk allocation included in each offer. The relevant comparison is the landed cost of an equivalent specification.

Spain's first official 2026/27 forecast is clearly positive for supply: 1.603 million tonnes nationally, up 23% year on year. Andalucía accounts for nearly four-fifths of the estimate, while Castilla-La Mancha is forecast at 152,555 tonnes.

For buyers, the correct interpretation is not that Spanish olive oil will automatically be cheap. It is that Spain currently has a materially stronger supply outlook, giving procurement teams a better basis for supplier discussions as harvesting, yields, quality distribution and market prices become clearer.